Saturday, May 30, 2009
Is the recession already over?
I was watching CNBC yesterday and they did a story with the same title as this post. Apparently someone surveyed this country's top economist and 90% of them expect the recession to end sometime this year. A number of them believe the recession has already ended. What's your take - do you think the worst of it is over?
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22 comments:
Well for whatever it's worth our Manufacturing facility recently added back a 3rd shift and for the first time in forever they will be open for two shifts on Saturday.
Is the recession over? Again, there are two schools of thought here, those that don't know and those that don't know that they don't know.
I think over the next year things will pick back up fairly nicely.
Then inflation will likely come back big time. I see yesterday mortgage rates were up 1%. Gold, Silver & Platinum are all through the roof. Typically you see that when investors are running from currency because they fear losing their ass to devaluation.
Unfortunately whether this recession by definition is over any time soon or not it's effects are going to be felt by some for a loooong time.
I can tell you that we had to lay off another 10 people in our IT organization this week. So, I'm not convinced we're through the worst yet.
I've read that unemployment is a trailing indicator and as such jobs will be among the last to bounce back. It's nice to hear of improvements in Doug's industry. Unfortunately semiconductors more closely resemble Sean's market than Doug's and we are still experiencing some bleeding. As for gold, I recently discovered an ETF where you can trade gold online just like stocks. The ticker symbol is GLD.
I'm not so sure the worst is behind us. My clients are still cutting and California unemployment is at an all-time high. Of course the state of California is all but bankrupt. I don't think we've changed our behavior enough to put it behind us.
I checked my Diversified Investment account this am (it's been stressful to look at these past few months so I've just ignored it)and actually made a nice chunk since Jan instead of losing. My rate of return since the beginning of the year is 6.5 percent, instead of in the minus percent that it was a few months ago..looking much better.
Cindy that is good news what did you invest in that is doing well?
I will remain pessimistic about the economy and say that the worst is yet to come. Excessive spending by our govt will have adverse consequences for years into the future. The recovery is all a sham, the USA is on its way to bankruptcy, if not there already. War and chaos throughout the world will be the norm until the bitter end.
Well then let's look at the bright side, no more:
Bills
Traffic
Prostate exams
Jenny Craig/Nutrisystem commercials
American Idol
Telemarketers
Root canals
Just to name a few.
Dang Dave, I bet you're a real fun guy to live with.
Juliet, my portfolio is very diverse and I am no economic wiz, I get lots of advice from a couple of friends at work...it looks like everything I am invested in made money the last month but especially the international stocks.
I keep seeing signs on the highway loudly proclaiming that this or that project is funded by the recovery act. This is a farce. There is no bag of money that the government can dip into to pay for these projects.
Instead, the sign should say: Project courtesy of the federal government borrowing money on your behalf. Don't worry the bill is coming. Well, the bill is coming to about HALF of us. The rest are aparently off the hook.
Not to worry Sean. It will be your children & grandchildren that get stuck with the tab.
At least until "the bitter end". :)
Here's a question. Who is it we are borrowing all this money from? If my memory serves me correct it's a group of private bankers. And what we are really borrowing? It's just some crap they made up out of thin air. Their money has no real value. It's not like they gave us Argentina or anything. I think at some point we can just tell them to kiss our ass 'cause we're not going to pay them. What could they possibly do about it?
C'mon Cindy, it isn't all doom and gloom with me, I was only stating the obvious. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where our country is headed economically. Even the poorest third world countries are wondering just what in the world we're doing to ourselves. Talk about self destruction... But hey, other than that, life is great.
"Out of chaos comes order"
The poorest third world countries are likely wondering WTF because as the US goes so do they. And the rest of the worlds economies too.
Consider that within ten years a full 25% of the US GDP will be going to service debt, a sizable portion held by China. Add in mandatory entitlement spending and there's not much left for discretionary spending for the public good. Even less for the Zimbabwe's of the world.
This country from an economic and monetary standpoint is on an unsustainable course.
The idea of defaulting on public debt may seem an appealing option but you have to consider the thousands of public and private bondholders that would be literally wiped off the financial map by such a move.
Yeah Uncle Sam may be free and clear but he would be in charge of a Republic with a multitude of broke ass states, municipalities, financial institutions and private investors.
Kind of like now only add in two billion pissed off chinese.
Drats. Leave it to Doug to dash my hopes and dreams. Thanks Dude. :(
Sorry dude. You never know, Uncle Sam might could win the powerball, like say, maybe 10,000 times.
Good for all you rich folk.
If 'they' didn't see the housing bomb
(recession) coming - how are 'they'
going to know when the recession's
going to pull out?!
When their magic 8 ball says so. Works as well as anything else.
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